Mutua Emmanuel, a fourth-year student at the Faculty of Education and Community Studies and a Campus Coordinator, Africa Youth Leadership Forum together with Caroline Bosire, a student from the Faculty of Science were nominated to represent the University in a Master Trainers Course on Voter Education and Peace Building at the Kenya School of Government. The course was sponsored by the Universities and Colleges Students Peace Association of Kenya (UCSPAK) and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

Reversing Emigration: Implications for Policy Makers

By Peter Ondari Rosana

Traditionally, international migration trends involved people migrating from countries with less advanced living standards to those which had prospects of a better quality of life. Most of us are familiar with this trend where emerging economies have been losing millions of their productive citizens to the developed world. However, some emerging economies are now investing in pull factors that can work towards overturning this trend, and hopefully slow down the urge by citizens to settle in other countries, or even entice those who have already migrated to return “home”. As a result, some destinations that were not very popular are now beginning to attract huge numbers of migrants. In this essay, I attempt to understand why this trend is gaining popularity in some parts of the world. I also draw some lessons for emerging economies like Kenya on how to slow down emigration of productive citizens through reverse emigration.

As earlier noted, most international migration tends to be from countries with less favourable conditions to those with better living standards and relative peace. Currently, the most industrialised nations like the USA, France, Germany, the UK, and the United Arab Emirates are the leading destinations for such migrants. For instance, in 2016 alone, the USA recorded 1.8 million cases of legal immigrants. Reports show that over 80 per cent of the population of the United Arab Emirates comprises of legal immigrants who primarily provide the workforce for the industries in that country.

On the other hand, countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Mexico, and China, are among the leading nations in the number of emigrants. What factors could be causing this trend, and how are they likely to evolve? We can only answer these questions by conducting a trend analysis of these factors and understanding the conditions in these countries. This knowledge will help us identify patterns and project what to expect over time. Based on current trends and mitigation strategies, the most likely result is a reversed order of migration, a situation called reverse international migration.

There are several factors that cause international migration. These conditions help us understand why people are migrating the way they do and the likely changes in migration trends. The first one is the economic status of the countries of origin compared to the destination country. For instance, about 870,000 migrants moved into the USA from Mexico between 2013 and 2018. Most of them moved there to look for employment opportunities and better economic standards like markets for their goods. Secondly, people move to other nations in search of quality education. This is most prevalent among African nations from which people move to the UK, USA, and India because these destinations have some of the best higher learning institutions globally. The third factor is climate change. Countries like Bangladesh and Kiribati are among the most affected because of climatic effects like cyclones and rising sea levels. For example, about 1/7 of the population in Bangladesh is projected to have migrated from there by 2050. Afghanistan is also experiencing prolonged drought, making it one of the most uninhabitable nations in the Middle East. Lastly, some of the countries experiencing the highest levels of emigration are those experiencing political unrest and civil war. Countries like Burkina Faso, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, and Libya are among the most affected. The political turmoil in these regions has driven thousands of people out of those nations as they seek better living conditions for their families.

Despite these prevailing circumstances, current and past trends show a possibility of reversing these operations. Governments are working tirelessly to make their nations more habitable. International bodies like the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) are also working towards resettling many displaced people back to their original countries. If the current measures are implemented efficiently, analysts project that by 2050 people will be migrating back to where they are moving from today. The conditions driving them out of their home countries will no longer exist. Alternatively, the increased population could reduce the pull factors in these destinations. For instance, if the population of industrialised nations increases significantly, there will be population pressure, and access to social amenities like healthcare facilities and jobs will be affected. Those living in those countries will likely have to move out in search of better conditions. This will, in turn, present further opportunities and challenges to both the sending and receiving countries.

In many nations, governments are as well working to create more employment opportunities. For instance, the migration rate from Mexico to the USA will likely reduce significantly by 2025 under President Andres Manuel. In August 2022 alone, his administration created over 20,000 jobs in Mexico City. The quality and availability of compulsory education have also increased over the past few years, increasing the number of professional workers. Lastly, the government has a job creation scheme in the Caribbean that will ensure that over 80 per cent of the population lives above the poverty line. On the other hand, the USA is working to reduce illegal migration from its southern border and to deport illegal immigrants back to Mexico, reversing the migration trend forcefully.

In education, Africa now has some of the best universities in the world. For example, the University of Johannesburg was founded in 2005 but is currently ranked among the top 500 universities in the world. Other institutions like the University of Cape Town and the University of Witwatersrand also rank highly on the global scale. In Kenya, Egerton University is now attracting global attention and has several international students from the rest of Africa and Asia. The University has also formed partnerships with other universities like the University of Ohio, and students can come to Egerton or go to Ohio to study. The need for quality higher education is now met locally, and countries like Kenya, from which people moved for further studies, could become major destinations for international students.

Thirdly, several bilateral and multilateral environmental agreements and organisations have been established to curb climate change. For example, the United Nations, founded after the Second World War, took up the responsibility to devise ways of managing the environment. They have developed sustainable development goals to reduce global warming to at most a rise of 2 degrees Celsius within the next 100 years. In Bangladesh, the government is offering adaptive services to over 40,000 families to cope with climate change. They have also set up 224 new cyclone shelters. Kiribati is equally doing an excellent job by building dykes, traditional sea walls, and planting mangrove forests to alleviate the displacement rate by sea level rise. Finally, water-rich river basins in Afghanistan are being diverted to fill drier ones and get water for irrigation. The government is also investing heavily in drought-resistant crops and research to boost the nation’s food security. Over time, these places vulnerable to climate change will become more habitable, attracting people to migrate and live there.

Lastly, the intensity and cases of war in most parts of the world are now reducing. Once a haven for terrorists, Somalia now has Dowladda Soomaaliya– the government of Somalia. With governance in place, terrorism and insecurity are bound to reduce. Former USA President Barrack Obama also withdrew all combat activity from Afghanistan and instead started offering support to the locals and their defence forces. In Myanmar, it is projected that military rule in the nation will soon end, and they will form a central government. With working rules in place, developers and investors will migrate there and get citizenship, reversing the migration trend. In addition, organisations like the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force are also working to restore global peace. Once countries like Libya regain political stability, their economic development will be rapid since they have resources like natural gas. Consequently, people will scramble to settle in the country instead of relocating from there.

This reverse migration trend will have some implications for policymakers in both the sending and receiving countries. First, the sending countries are likely to face labour shortages as their workforce migrates to other countries. There is also the possibility of experiencing brain drain if skilled citizens opt to settle elsewhere. On the receiving end, there may be technology transfer, a need for new immigration policies, and reduced diaspora remittances. While the emigrants may also move out with some skills, these abilities may not be applicable or recognised in their new residence, making it hard for them to settle and adapt. As this trend starts to set in, policy makers from both nations need to assess the impact of the phenomena, form partnerships, and device ways of dealing with any challenges that may come with the shift.

In conclusion, no one may like to live in hostile conditions. For this reason, governments are working to ensure such circumstances are alleviated. They are bound to succeed. This will reduce the rate of migrating out of such places. Eventually, people will start moving back to those locations; a situation called reverse international migration. Whether in a few or many years, reverse international migration is inevitable.

The Lure of the Middle East: Must We Go?

By Martha Irene Mwende Wanjuki

Recently, there has been a rise in the number of semi-skilled and unskilled Kenyans migrating to the Middle East, particularly Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In a report by the Labour and Social Welfare Committee, 80,000 Kenyans are working and living in Saudi Arabia alone. Most of them are serving there as domestic labourers.

I do not think there is a problem with these statistics. I am also a hardworking Kenyan and believe in moving in the search for new opportunities and for new ways of making a living. However, I have a big problem with the documented  mistreatment of Kenyan migrant workers in those countries. A few weeks ago, I watched a video of a young Kenyan woman who had  left behind a two-month-old baby to go to the Middle East to work as a domestic servant and who had been denigrated by her employer to such an extent that she was breastfeeding his puppies, and my heart sank.

Many families have been crying out to the government for help inbringing their daughters, sisters, or mothers back home from the Middle East due to forms of mistreatment that were not dissimilar to the experiences that that young mother was going through. Unfortunately, some have only received corpses, while others have been treated to news to the effect that their loved ones had died under mysterious circumstanes. Yet, even so, we have continued to hear of flights to Saudi Arabia with women filled with hope and ambitions. And this brings us to the critical question that we must all confront: Must we go? The simple answer is, No: we do not have to go because the government can create opportunities here in Kenya that are comparable to those that are available in the Middle East. Equally importantly, the mistreatment of our women in the Middle East threatens our dignity as a nation.

Between 2019 and 2021, the Labour and Social Welfare Committee reported that 90 domestic workers had died in Middle Eastern countries in the course of that period. Most of them, according to the report, hadpassed away due to violations of their rights and other forms of mistreatment. Furthermore, within the same period, there had been 1,908 calls of distress whereby some of  the workers hadrequestedurgent assistance against such mistreatment. These are statistics from a publication of a government committee. Yet, unfortunately, the parliamentary publication only highlights the sad situations and leaves it at that. Nowhere in the report does it provide solutions or action-based mitigation in respect of the atrocities. For me, this is enough reason to believe that the government is partially responsible for the mistreatment of its migrant workers.

When the video of the Kenyan woman who was shown breastfeeding dogs in the home of her employer in the Middle East went viral, the Secretary General of the Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU), Mr Francis Atwoli, did not say much except that the employment agencies responsible for hiring and transporting Kenyan women to the Middle East to work as domestic servants should be banned. However, he did make a statement that means everything if only everyone would listen to it. He said that the mistreatment to which the women concerned are routinely subjected is an indirect form of slavery and that it is better for us to stay here in our country than to sacrifice our dignity by taking up indecent jobs in the gulf countries. I reflected on this statement for quite some time, and it made a lot of sense to me. There is no doubt that it is far much better to suffer in your own country than to do so in a foreign land doing unthinkable tasks. And so, I believe we do not have to go!

There is a saying to the effect that necessity is the mother of invention, and the recent unemployment risein Kenya has caused youths to begin to  apply their creativity in innovating opportunities to make a living. Every time I walk the streets of Nakuru and Nairobi I cannot stop applauding the levels of innovation that ordinary Kenyans in those and other parts of the country have achieved based on the businesses I see. I have met young women selling snacks and men carrying luggage for a living. These may not sound like decent jobs, but they feed their families and make a living out of them. Everyone can find something to do with a little change of mindset and willingness to take the “road not taken by many”, as mentioned in Robert Frost’s poem of the same name.

The reason why our youths oftentimes leave the country to venture out into other parts of the world is taht they want to take the smoother path instead of the grassy one. And, in the end, the smooth path oftentimes leads them into mistreatment and exploitation, so that they are left making distress calls and promising to make better choices if given another chance. It so happens that migrating to the Middle East is an easier route most people take to make ends meet. I do not blame them; I uplaud their bravery and determination in life. However, I think that there is a need to consider the bigger picture that lies in the consequences of such decisions. That path should be the last resolution after a person has exhausted all other alternatives. But this is not the case for most migrant workers because some go so far as dropping out of school to chase the “easy” money. I am of the view that we do not necessarily have to become international migrant workers in order for us to make a living. We do not have to go!

Philippinos by are by far the largest population of migrant workers in the Middle East, and they have also had their fair share of mistreatment scandals. However, unlike Kenya, the government the government of the Phillipines has in the past had to ban the deployment of migrant domestic workers to the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, as a way of enforcing remedial measures to the situation. For example,in the recent past, the government temporarily suspended the deployment of its workers to Saudi Arabia following a series of cases of violations of their rights. This paints a picture of a government that values its citizens’ welfare and life. It shows that the govenment upholds the dignity of its citizens and will not let them be reduced to slaves in a foreign land. Our country needs to take the same direction so as to protect our young women fromthe  mistreatment and frequent deaths we have been witnessing in recent times. The Philippine government intends to lift the ban this November only becasue its officials and those of Saudi Arabia have agreed to reforms allowing for close monitoring of the migrant workers. Subsequent to the negotiations, the Workers’ Secretary in the country, Susan Ople, announced that Saudi Arabia had committed itself to collaborating with the Phillipnes on the matter and would henceforth support the rights of Philippino migrant workers as required by international law.

In Kenya, ont the other hand, the government has not made much effort as a collective unit. Rather, it has been left to a few philanthropists and organizations to take onthe  role of philanthropists with respect to the workers who make distress calls. It is high time we took the initiative as a country and upheld the slogan, “We do not have to go until the necessary reforms are out in place!”

The newly formed government has started well. The Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary, Alfred Mutua, has made an official trip to Saudi Arabia following a talk with Mr Khalid Abdullah, the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Kenya. Earlier, Mutua had met with the employment agencies responsible for the recruiting and transportation of migrant workers to the Middle East and had discussed the matter with them. The agenda of the meeting was to find out what might be done to ensure the  welfare of Kenyan workers in foreign countries. Could this a sign of a new dawn for Kenya, especially for the people living in foreign countries as migrant workers? I am not sure, but it does not hurt to hope. I pray and hope that the government will take action required to improvethe wellbeing of Kenyans who venture abroad in search of greener pastures. After all, as John Locke observes in his Two Treatises of Government, the existence of government is throughthe people’s consent to protect their rights and act for the common good of the society. The government is, above all eslse, obligated to protect its citizens, including migrant workers, within and outside the borders, against all possible dangers.

As I have said herein, it does no harm to hope, but I continue to maintain that,  until action is taken, we do not have to go!  It behooves us to remain in our country and engage in other productive activities until we are assured that the problem has been corrected. We would rather have one bird in our hands while in our country than chase twobirds  inthe Middle East as long as that part of the world continues to be so unpredictable.

Please do not take me wrong. I have nothing personal against the Middle East countries and the migrant workers who go there in search of opportunities to earn a living. What I am against is the blatant mistreatment and violation of Kenyan workers’ rights. This is why I will continue to recommend action – so that our workers can be safe in those countries. My problem with us is that, as things stand now, all we have is people talking and expressing concerns without intervening in the situation as much as we should.

There are many ways to kill a rat, and migrating to the Middle East is only one. There is not a day that passes nowadays that I do not find myself praying for the migrant workers’ safety and hoping that a day will come when we will not have to worry about their welfare. I am always hoping against hope that the government will find it in its heart to act on their plight as we we here at home continue to look foralternative ways of making ends meet. Until that day comes, in my view, we do not have to go!